Scots be free or set a chain reaction to chaos!

                                                                     -By Anshul Melville

"Your anger vanished for the time being. Perhaps not for long because it has now been replaced with regret and the sheer disappointment of seeing a broken country. You vow to never throw a fit again, but also realize the nations fragility and wish you hadn’t."

The other day I came across a debate regarding the nation of Scotland. Mainly it’s contempt towards the current ‘arranged’ union with England. The debate showcased how Scots always pride themselves as not being English and have a history to back that exact claim. However, recently I learnt of a referendum vote that would finally settle Scotland’s perceived problem of association with the English. My old broken phone was the first image to pop into my mind and I thought “This might not be such a good idea”.

Clearly, I’m not a person whose opinion could be regarded. I’m neither Scottish or English. However, I’ve seen the partition of countries and people. This blog mainly talks about why I think Scots must remain with the Union of the United Kingdom and why should they drop the idea of separation. 

Firstly, I’ve seen Braveheart and I found the movie spectacular. Although, I’m the first to realize its impracticalities, I enjoyed the movie. 

It underlined the spirit of the Scottish people and the pride they share along with the rough past they’ve had. 

Scotland unlike the rest of the United Kingdom, was divided from the Roman Emperor Hadrian's times. Who famously built the Hadrian’s wall that marked the end of Roman civilization. The reason why I’ve highlighted civilization is because the word has been the cause and underline of countless future problems this land would face. The Romans were very proud of their civilization and considered spreading it to be their holy duty. This also includes the language of Latin. Anyone who would not be part of the empire was conveniently termed as uncivilized. 

In the case of Britain under Roman rule, this was magnified as Hadrian’s wall became a symbol of the end of civilization and the commencement of barbarism.

 This wall would eventually become the border between England and Scotland, dividing both the lands and their people. Despite of being virtually besides each other, the division was still deep.

The following events of this historic divide were inevitable. English monarchs would want Scottish lands and Scottish monarchs would rally against them. Creating a nation wide resentment towards anything English. The Scots have more than once, united against a common enemy, something greatly underestimated by the British, even today. 
“Are you listening Mr. David Cameron”. 

Regardless, resentment always grew and soon turned into anxiety and paranoia when in 1707 under King James VI of Scotland, the Act of Union allowed both countries to be governed by one parliament and ruled by one monarch. This meant that both England and Scotland were under the same rules and would no longer be subjected to wars. 

Although, this never meant peace between the two nations.

Soon throughout the 20th century, Scotland began to feel the physical and official distance between London and the monarchy. Scotland was dragged into the Nepoleonic wars, the World Wars 1 and 2 and lost brave men for the Union, yet felt neglected by the capital city of London. It’s voice was not heard and it’s views were ushered to the back benches of Westminster. It was obvious that the idea of separation was planted deep inside by the Westminster government itself. Soon enough it became a loud voice within the Scots, perhaps some Englishmen cared to listen too. 

This brings us to today, where Scotland finally makes a concrete decision. 

According to Scottish economists, this couldn’t be at a better time. Scotland has been producing a huge amount of oil from it’s northern shores and suggests that it holds tremendous economical potential. The United Kingdom is a lot less wealthier and is in a massive amount of fiscal debt. The economists of Scotland view this to be a perfect moment. And the politicians of Scotland consider this to be the chance to finally govern themselves. While the people of Scotland want her natural resources to be used for herself. 

This sounds promising, but could this work?

Scotland currently uses the British pound and relies on British reserves to maintain the pounds value. This would be the first thing Scotland will loose upon separation. It would have the choice of creating its own currency or joining the European Union and using the Euro, like the Republic of Ireland. 

“Bad Example”

This immense movement between currencies could possibly be fatal for a new emerging nation. Let’s see why.

Firstly, Scottish economists greatly underestimate the amount of debt Scotland would be in right after it takes it share from the United Kingdom. The country would have Billions of dollars in debt on it’s budget way before it has a single dollar in reserves. This causes a deficit and would result in inflation. 

Inflation will have no control during this period, plus the existing value of land, property and gold could be tremendously volatile. So the Scottish people would own assets that would be marginally less in value than their British neighbours. 

Even if the country implements the Euro, it will take a long time before Scotland is granted membership. Remember Ireland took 24 years to finally join the European Union.

Both the currency scenarios hold huge risks for a new and emerging Scotland. 

This will also create great inconveniences for people who move across the English, Scottish border for trade. With constant foreign exchange transactions and fluctuating currencies, the people would be the first to bear the brunt, rather than the government. 

Another foreseeable problem that arises for Scotland is the nations revenue. Scotland is heavily relying on their oil resources that are extracted from countless oil rigs in their northern shores. Though the assortment of oil between the UK and Scotland has yet to be decided, the country still believes its oil reserves will be enough to build the nation and be the primary source of income. 

In the long term, Scotland might face huge revenue problems as oil resources deplete globally. The nation does not have a strong tourism industry and would have to solely rely on agriculture. Either that or spend a huge amount on setting up industries. This process would take a lot of time and would not help the nation effectively allocate finances to their social structure.

All of this, coupled with an uncertain currency and rising debt will be a huge challenge. A challenge that will be directly borne by the people. This would be in the form of increased taxes and regular fares on government services. This could further lead into chaos if the set currency is not strong enough. Finally, the people of Scotland could also experience heavy interest rates on loans and the borrowing capacity of the local population would decrease tremendously. 
Imagine the brunt on student loans along with rampant unemployment as the government struggles to channel their resources towards building a foundation for a new country. Many students would move to cities outside Scotland in search of work causing Emigration that means the nation has fewer tax payers.

The foreign trade sector would suffer immensely too as the Scottish government would have to increase tariffs on imports and exports. Which would not be the UK’s problem, so we could see a lot of Scottish people buying regular products from UK and bringing them through the border. 

This would be similar to a domino effect that would eventually force the Scottish government to borrow more funds! “We never cleared the debt in the first place, now we’ve got more!”

With these major hiccups, what choices would the Scottish people have?

If the country decides to stay with the existing union, Prime Minister David Cameron’s government has promised to give furthermore autonomy to Scotland’s ministry of finance. This means that Scotland would have the freedom of setting and amending tax rates on its own natural resources. Scotland would have the power to utilize their resources and would also have the choice to spend freely. 

Scotland can set or lower taxes on oil, allowing it’s oil to be more accessible. This can also help Scotland increase their reserves as the UK government would have no access. 

This would allow Scotland to prepare for their aging baby bloomer population and also help bring investment allowing the younger population to get jobs and cheaper education. None of these would be possible under the burden of separation. 

This is not exactly similar to independence, but it could give the Scottish government a taste of their prosperity as they foresee it. “Can you hear me Mr. Alex Salmond?”

But trust me, 

This vote is easier than one thinks. With greater autonomy, Scotland can gradually move towards the prosperity where she can put the unemployed to work, get better returns of their investments and have a strong autonomous government. 

Perhaps also convince David Cameron to ship off their nukes to Southampton!

In conclusion, I just want to imagine myself standing in front of some Scottish people and saying this - 

To the Scots, you have been patient, loyal and have understood what the future holds for you. You’re strong, rich, wealthy and now you’re louder than before! Just listen to the Queen’s knees knocking!  

The world has seen what you have to offer, we understand your plight and I love Sean Connery! 

As Prime Minister Cameron says, “there is no turning back” which is true as your country won’t have a choice of going back to the Union. And the potential problems of separation overshadow the benefits your politicians offer. Although their prosperity plans are true and could very well be greater than expected, every nation needs to have a strong economical base as it struggles to earn some cash amidst 196 other countries who are trying to do the same! 
Separating from the Union will simply pull the foundation beneath you and bring grave uncertainties to your people. 

We all know what Scots can do, give us pioneers like Adam Smith, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle and amazing actors like Peter Capaldi and Gerard Butler. Plus, you’ve given David Cameron and the Queen the biggest scare of their life! 

Think of your ageing population and your recent graduates with massive student loans on their shoulders.

Please drink more scotch and vote carefully. 

Yours truly

Melville